Saturday 4/25/09 service plays chatter /comps/ requests & gm strategy...

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Saturday 4/25/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...
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teddy GOY

(<)<GAME OF THE YEAR SATURDAY
Teddy Covers has his NBA Playoff Game of the Year Saturday. We'll be selling it for $55 or more - but for my VIP's, I'm going to sell of them for $29. The play is not posted yet, but will be later this evening(<)<(<)<
 

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Anybody considering getting the docs NBA 6u game? His website says it is going to be posted tonight.
 
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(<)<GAME OF THE YEAR SATURDAY


Teddy Covers has his NBA Playoff Game of the Year Saturday. We'll be selling it for $55 or more - but for my VIP's, I'm going to sell of them for $29. The play is not posted yet, but will be later this evening(<)<(<)<


if it's his big ticket game don't buy it, I'll have it.
 
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VEGAS EXPERTS

Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Hornets

Home court advantage is so crucial in the Western Conference. In 11 games played thus far, we've seen exactly two wins posted by the road team. New Orleans fits the mode perfectly as they are essentially a .500 team away from home, but 28-13 SU on this floor during the regular season. More importantly, they are 20-5 vs. the number at home playing with same season revenge.

Play on: New Orleans
 
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Marc Lawrence

NY Yankees at Boston Red Sox

The Yankees and Red Sox get it on in Game Two of this bitter rivalry at Fenway Park this afternoon when A.J. Burnett takes the hill for New York. For opener, Burnett loves hurling in the Bronx where he is 3-0 with a microscopic 0.40 ERA in his MLB career team starts. He's also 5-1 in his last six road starts during the opening month of April. Look for Burnett to pay his first big dividend for New York here today when the Pinstripes to improve to 10-1 away on Saturdays here this afternoon.

Play on: NY Yankees
 
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Cajun Sports

Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles

Oriole Park will be the site of tonight’s game two in this four-game set between the host Baltimore Orioles and the visiting Texas Rangers. The Rangers were able to grab game one on Friday night with a 5 to 4 win. The Orioles will be looking to even the series behind left-hander Mark Hendrickson who got buried the last time he faced this Rangers team back on April 15 in Texas. In that game Hendrickson lasted 3.7 innings giving up 9 runs two of which were earned on 7 hits in a 19 to 6 beating. Hendrickson is 1-2 on the season with an ERA of 3.86 but his home record is 1-0 with an ERA of 1.69. His only outing at home this year saw him get the win over the Tampa Bay Rays 5 to 4 pitching 5.3 innings giving up one run on six hits. The Orioles are 6-3 W/L at home this season averaging 5.7 runs per game with a .290 batting average and an OBP of .374. Texas is 6-9 W/L on the season which includes a record of 1-5 W/L on the highway averaging 3.8 runs per game and a batting average of only .187. They will send right-hander Scott Feldman to the bump who has pitched in three games this season for a total of 6.7 innings of work with an ERA of 12.15 and a WHIP of 2.239. He has given up 9 earned runs on 11 hits including three homeruns, four bases on balls and six strikeouts. Our Team Efficiency Index shows the Orioles with 55 percent while the Rangers are only 25 percent efficient. Combine this with the TPR Index projection which have the Orioles defeating the Rangers by 1.65 runs in tonight’s clash we will back the host here as they bounce back and even this series on Saturday night.

Graded Selection: 2* Baltimore Orioles 7 Texas Rangers 5
 
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Jeff Hochman

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox

Since 2006, Mark Buehrle has held the Blue Jays to a .189 batting average. Buehrle has been excellent at US Cellular Field off a team loss in his career. The Blue Jays will be starting Brian Burres who has struggled this year down below. Brian Burres is 0-2 in two starts and one relief appearance in Triple-A this year, with an ERA of 6.97 in 10 1/3 innings. Play the White Sox!
 
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Mike Rose

Miami Heat -4

Absolutely everything went right for the Hawks in Game 1 of this series. All five starters scored in double figures (as did Zaza Pachulia off the bench), and the defense was simply stifling; particularly in the second half. Six players reached double digits again in Game 2 of the series, but the defense which held Miami to 36.6% shooting in Game 1 was awful and gave up 55.6% from the floor in Game 2. Don't blame F Josh Smith, though. Smith has excelled in this series, recording double-doubles in both outings. He also leads the team for the series in steals (five) and blocks (three). For a team that held its opponents to 96.5 points per game in the regular season, Atlanta should be getting better defensive efforts from guard's Mike Bibby and Joe Johnson.

Though he wasn't the only reason the Heat lost Game 1, G Dwayne Wade was a huge part of the problem. He only shot 8/21 from the floor and turned the ball over eight times. He still led Miami in scoring with 19 points, but that's not saying much for a team that only mustered 25 total points in the second half. Game 2 was a completely different story for the former Marquette star though. He shot 11/20 from the field and 6/10 from beyond the arc for 33 points. He also dished out seven dimes and hauled in five boards. Keep an eye on both G Daequan Cook and F Michael Beasley, both of which are contributing solid minutes to the Heat off the bench. The duo combined for 32 points and 11 boards in Game 2 and can be counted on for more good minutes in the remainder of this series.

It's hard not to like Miami's chances in this series from here. In Game 2, the Heat had the swagger of the team that won the NBA Championship just a few years ago. Miami went 28-13 at American Airlines Arena this season, while Atlanta went just 16-25 away from Phillips Arena. The Hawks are only 6-15 ATS in their L/21 games with Miami, and an even worse 3-12 ATS away from home. Expect the hosts to go ahead in this series on Saturday night.
 
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Craig Trapp

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: New York Yankees

Craig had a good day overall yesterday going 3-1 with his premium plays. Unfortunately we lost our Bonus Play as the Reds walked 2 runs in to cost us the win. Tough loss yesterday but today Craig is going to have huge bounce back win. Our Bonus Play is in the Rivalry Game 2 Boston Red Sox hosting New York Yankees. Lets look at the trends and records for this match up.

Records:

New York Yankees 9-7 Burnett 2-0 (3.20 ERA)

Boston Red Sox 10-6 Beckett 2-1 (3.79 ERA)

Betting Trends:

Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150

Yankees are 12-4 in their last 16 vs. American League East.

Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Red Sox are 1-5 in Becketts last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Yankees are 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

The Yankees broke open the war chest in the off season and signed the best two pitchers available (Burnett and Sabathia). So far Burnett has been very good but he was really acquired because historically he has had huge success against Boston. The veteran right-hander is 5-0 with a 2.56 ERA in eight career starts versus Boston even better at Fenway Park he is 3-0 with .40 ERA. After Boston had another classic win in this great rivalry series on Friday the NYY will be super motivated and win in a run away. NY has not lost a game Burnett has pitched yet and they keep it that way today! SCORE NYY 6 - BOS 1
 
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Tom Freese

Pittsburgh at San Diego

Pittsburgh is 6-1 UNDER vs. a team with a winning record and they are 5-2 UNDER in game two of a series. The Pirates are 7-3-1 UNDER their last 11 games overall and they 5-2 UNDER when Zach Duke is off a loss. San Diego is 7-3 UNDER their last 10 home games and they are 35-16 UNDER their last 51 games as home favorites. The Padres are 7-2 UNDER vs. NL Central teams and they are 4-1 UNDER their last 5 games with the Pirates. PLAY ON 'UNDER' (Duke vs. Hill)
 
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James Patrick Sports

Giants vs. Diamondbacks

Arizona has had their way with San Francisco winning 17 of 27 games in the dessert and they owe one to Randy Johnson for a loss in the Bay Area last weekend. Our Saturday complimentary selection in Major League Baseball is Arizona Diamondbacks.
 
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Big Al McMordie

Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals

At 4:10pm our complimentary selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Chicago Cubs. Righthander and second-year player for the Cardinals, Mitchell Boggs, had a shot at the fifth starter job going into the preseason, but he was passed by little-known P.J. Walters when he got injured slightly during spring training. But Boggs is healthy again and looked good in his one relief appearance, while Walters struggled a bit in his only start, so now Boggs has taken Walters' place. This move was expected, as Boggs was always the guy the Cards hoped would emerge at the back end of the rotation, as he had flourished in the last three years starting games in the minors at the A, AA, and AAA levels, having winning records at each level, and low ERAs with plenty of strikeouts. Righthander Sean Marshall is supposedly the Cubs' fifth starter although he had two relief appearances before his first start, and in 2008 Marshall was used primarily out of the bullpen, so it's unclear exactly what role he will have as the season progresses. Ironically, Marshall's only start thus far came against this St. Louis team on 4/16, a game which the Cards won quite easily, 7-4. The Cubs offense is struggling a bit right now with only the 11th best batting average in the National League (.254) and only 66 total runs scored, which is 22 fewer than the Cards. Take St. Louis.
 
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ROCKETMAN

New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
Play: NY Yankees

NY Yankees are scoring 5.7 runs per game on the road and 5.7 runs per game against right handed starters. Burnett is 2-0 with a 3.20 ERA overall this year and 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA on the road this season. Burnett is 5-0 with a 2.56 ERA overall vs Boston since 1997. Yankees are 7-1 in their last 8 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter. Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 games on grass. Red Sox are 1-5 in Becketts last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Red Sox are 0-4 in Becketts last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Yankees are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Boston. We'll recommend a small play on the NY Yankees today!
 
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Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Chicago Cubs +100

After 3 straight losses, I expect the Cubs to bounce back strong this afternoon against a team they have had lots of success against. Chicago is 12-6 in St. Louis over the last 3 seasons. The Cards struggle against lefty starters, averaging just 4.4 runs per game against them this season compared to the 6.2 they are averaging in all games. So that gives the Cubs the edge on the mound with Marshall against Boggs today. Plus, the Cubs are 12-1 against the money line vs. teams averaging 3.5 or more extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons, 42-16 against the money line vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons, and 23-8 against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage of .340 or better over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Cubs in this bounce back spot.
 
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Jeff Benton

L.A. Lakers at UTAH +4'

I’m now on 20-9 run with Bonus Plays (11-3 with the last 14) after barely nailing Friday’s selection on the Yankees-Red Sox UNDER the total. For Saturday, we’ll flip the NBA Playoffs and back the Jazz plus the points in Game 4 of their series against the Lakers.

You simply cannot argue with the facts, and the facts in this series are that the Lakers struggle in Salt Lake City; the Jazz own their home court; and the home team owns this rivalry. Start with the first point. With Thursday’s 88-86 loss at Utah as a two-point road favorite in Game 2, Los Angeles is now just 3-8 SU in its last 11 trips to Salt Lake City and 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 in Utah. That includes a 1-3 record in the playoffs in Utah the last two years.

Meanwhile, Utah is now 34-8 at home this season, including 17-2 in its last 19. And while the Jazz don’t have a particularly good pointspread record at home (23-19 ATS), that’s because they’re almost always laying points (and often big points). Tonight, they’re catching points – twice as many as they did in Game 3, as a matter of fact.

As for this rivalry, the home team has won all six meetings this year (5-1 ATS) and is 11-1 SU in the last 12. What’s more, the host has cashed at a 15-5-1 clip in the last 21 head-to-head matchups!

Finally, Utah (which has covered the number in the last two games) is on ATS runs of 4-1 as a playoff underdog and 10-4 in first-round postseason games, while the Lakers have failed to cash in five of their last six road games dating to the regular season and six of their last seven when laying points in the playoffs.

Bottom line, despite numerous opportunities to lie down like dogs, the Jazz have shown absolutely no quit and no fear against the West’s top seed. That’s not about to change tonight. Look for the Jazz, who have a significant 131-108 rebounding edge in this series, to continue to own the glass, which will keep this one close throughout and put Utah in position to cover this number – if not win outright and even this series. Play the underdog.

4? UTAH
 
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Karl Garrett

Atlanta at MIAMI

After opening the series with an UNDER, the Heat and Hawks easily went OVER the total in Game Two, and the G-Man likes another OVER in Saturday's Game Three.

For one thing, 6 of Atlanta's last 8 games on the road have played HIGH, as have 6 of Atlanta's last 8 Saturday contests.

For another, Miami is on an 11-3-1 OVER clip their last 15 at home, and 6 of Miami's last 9 games overall have landed on the UPSIDE.

Finally, Atlanta is 20-19-2 OVER the total on the road this year, while Miami is 24-16-1 OVER the total in South Florida for the season.

G-Man sticking with the trends, and playing a high-scoring game in Game Three of this Eastern Conference playoffs.

3♦ OVER
 
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Bobby Maxwell

San Francisco +110 at ARIZONA

Gave you a FREE winner on Friday night with the Mariners as they went into Anaheim and got the win. Tonight we've got another one for you as we go with the Giants in Arizona against the D'Backs.

This is a rematch from Sunday when Randy Johnson pitched a gem for the Giants and beat Max Scherzer and the D'Backs. So we don't see much of a difference today and we're grabbing the plus-money with San Francisco.

Johnson allowed just one hit in seven innings of Sunday as San Francisco beat Arizona 2-0. It was the first time he had ever faced his old team and looked great against them. Now he's back on the mound where he spend eight seasons and helped win a World Series in Arizona. Look for him to dominate again.

Arizona has lost nine of Scherzer's last 10 outings and this guy just has no consistency. One day he'll strike out 11 and walk one, then the next outing he'll walk four and strike out five. Look for the Giants to make him throw a lot of pitches and wait to get good pitches to hit.

The D'Backs are just 2-6 in their last eight as a favorite and their offense isn't designed to hit Johnson. They will struggle against southpaws all season and we're counting on them struggling in this one. Play the Giants.

3♦ SAN FRANCISCO


Denver at NEW ORLEANS -4'

We're giving you a FREE winner on the hardwood today as we go with the Hornets on their home court to take care of the Nuggets and get the cash.

There is not going to be another chance for the Hornets. They have to get it done today and we think the energy from the home crowd will lead them to a big win in this one. We'll lay the chalk with New Orleans in this one.

You'll see the Hornets' Chris Paul and David West become the one-two punch we saw from them last season. New Orleans went 28-13 at home this season and they are on positive ATS runs of 8-2 as a playoff favorite, 8-1 when laying less than five points in the postseason and 17-8 as a home favorite of less than five points.

Even though the Nuggets have looked great through two games, we still have our doubts on how they'll handle the hostile environment inside New Orleans Arena. Denver's Chauncey Billups has been the best player on the court to this point, but you'll see him be a bet slower tonight as Paul takes the opportunity to dominate.

Denver is just 3-13 ATS as a playoff underdog an 2-8 ATS in its last 10 first-round playoff games. Play the Hornets at home to put it together one time ad get an easy win and cover.

2♦ NEW ORLEANS
 
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Sports Gambling Hotline

San Antonio at DALLAS -4'

We thought we would see San Antonio put up more of a fight on Thursday night, but instead the Spurs were rolled 88-67 by the Mavericks, as Dallas pushed ahead 2-1 in this best-of-seven set.

We will ride the Mavericks once again at home, as Dallas is now 3-1 both straight up, and against the spread the last 4 series meetings, and they are on an overall series run of 19-9 against the spread the last 28 times they have faced their in-state rival.

With Ginobili out, and Duncan not dealing at 100%, it is hard for us to make a case for these aging Spurs. Dallas smells blood in the water, and with a chance to head back to Alamo Town up 3-1 in games, we will look for the Mavs to close out the sale on their home hardwood this Saturday afternoon.

Take the Mavericks minus the points.

5♦ DALLAS
 
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Drew Gordon

Tampa Bay at OAKLAND +110

While some believe the Rays offense may have finally awakened after a slow start in the early going, I'm not convinced just yet. One good game against a very green lefty in Trevor Cahill hardly accounts for a "breakout" effort! Look for the Rays offense to cool off considerably tonight, as they face-off against a lefty Dallas Braden, who despite his 1-2 record has been rock-solid thus far, posting a 2.79 ERA.

Speaking of Braden, he's coming off a hard luck loss where he allowed just 1 run over 7 1/3 innings at Toronto, only to get outdueled by Ricky Romero who threw 7 scoreless. Needless to say, the Blue Jays were hot and Braden dumped a bucket of ice on their offense. In the start prior, he allowed 2 runs over 6 innings to the powerhouse Red Sox offense... So don't tell me that the A's lefty can't handle the Rays offense, despite some poor efforts in the past, he's pitching great right now.

On the flip side, we all know how good Matt Garza can be, but right now you got to be little concerned with his last start, getting tagged for 7 runs in 5 2/3 innings against the White Sox. Granted, this A's offense isn't exactly on fire, but they will benefit from seeing their first righty in their last 7 games! Teams are happy to take advantage of the A's deficiencies against southpaws, but not today, as Garza gets the nod.

Finally, it came as no surprise that Kazmir outdueled Cahill yesterday, but with 5 straight losses, I'm expecting a desperate Oakland team to bring out the bats in their first match up against a righty in 7 games. They need to get back on track, and Braden is just the pitcher to do it. He's been locked in, and with the Rays offense hardly consistent at this point, this is a good spot to grab some of that plus money.

Take Oakland behind Braden over Tampa Bay and Garza in this MLB match up.

2♦ OAKLAND
 

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